Dwight Watt - Watt Thoughts #212 3/27/2010
#212 - Political year length
In the past little over nine calendar years I have learned that
political years are not the same. My bachelor's degree is in
political science and I do not remember them ever teaching us that
political years are more like dog years than human years.
Think back to 2000 when George W Bush was elected president and the
House and Senate were controlled by the Republicans. We were told we
had entered a new era of politics in Washington and the Democrats
were going to be the minority party for the next 20-40 years. We
heard that story on thru about 2005.
If you go back in time this was a first for most Americans as always
during our lives the Democrats had controlled at least the House or
Senate and usually the other. When the Senate went Republican in
Reagan's era it was big news but 14 more years before House went
Republican and then there was a Democrat president. In 2000 the
Republicans in control of all three parts of elective branches was
different. You have to go back to 1948 when the Republicans had
controlled the House and the Senate and Truman, Democrat, was president.
Then in 2008 Obama was elected president and with him the House and
Senate went Democrat. Suddenly we heard pronouncements everywhere
that we had entered a new era in politics and that the Republican
Party was dead and the Democrats would be in control for the next
It is now early 2010 and the predictions are that Republicans will
make gains this fall and could be major gains and some are calling
for them to again control the House and/or the Senate. The
Republicans are not behaving like beaten elephants but are giving
appearances of expecting the change. We are watching predictions
from Democrats on whether they will do lose control from a group that
was on top one and a half years ago. Many I read say Republican
gains this fall and in 2012 with majorities changing then. We are
watching both sides saying a couple of issues will be the big
decision this fall (healthcare/insurance, Afghanistan and the
economy), but I will wait to summer as new issues could rise.
So the republicans were going to control it all for 20-40 years was 6
calendar years, the Democrats are going to control for 20-40 years
but may be only 2-4 years, and only nine and a half calendar
years. I originally was thinking dog years but now looking at that
maybe it is nuclear half lives. I know there are some that think
politics probably ought to be handled like nuclear waste, so maybe
nuclear half lives is way to measure.
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